Market outlook
Stable Outlook 8/10
The card is likely to remain highly sought after because Greninja is a perennial collector favorite, but initial launch hype usually normalizes after the first wave of openings. Strong character demand should support prices, while ongoing supply from sealed product can cap near-term spikes.[1][4][7][10]
Next months. Expect price volatility with a possible modest pullback from early release highs if more copies enter the market, followed by stabilization around collector-driven demand.
Long term. Over 1-3 years, the card has a strong chance to hold premium status as a headline Greninja chase, with upside if sealed supply tightens or if graded gem-mint copies remain scarce.
History
Greninja is a Water-type Pokémon introduced in Generation VI as the final evolution of Froakie, and it became one of the franchise’s most recognizable modern mascots because of its high speed, ninja-themed design, and strong competitive and anime visibility. Mega Greninja ex in Chaos Rising is presented as a premium Mega Evolution-era chase card built around that popularity, with the set’s highest-end Greninja variants centered on collectors’ demand for the character rather than gameplay utility alone.[2][4][13]
The first known release of this card is in the English set Chaos Rising, released on May 22, 2026.[3][14] The specific card you provided, Mega Greninja ex 116/086, appears as the Special Illustration Rare print in that set.[12]
- Chaos Rising is reported to contain 122 cards total, including 36 secret rares, with Mega Greninja ex among the headline chase cards.[1][14]
- The set includes multiple Mega Greninja ex variants, including a Special Illustration Rare and a higher-end Mega Hyper Rare, making Greninja the central chase character of the expansion.[1][4][13]
- Community and retail sources place the 116/086 Special Illustration Rare among the most expensive cards in the set, with the set’s top Greninja variants drawing the strongest collector attention.[7][8][10]
Rarity and print run
- Tier
- Secret Rare
- Print run
- Very High
- First printed in
- Chaos Rising
- Demand
- Very High
- Supply
- Low
- It is a numbered secret rare full-art chase card.
- It sits in the top collector tier of a 122-card set with multiple secret rare chase variants.
- Full-art high-rarity prints usually have lower pull rates than standard ultra rares, and Greninja’s popularity amplifies scarcity pressure in the secondary market.[1][4][12]
Collector notes
Condition. Check for whitening on corners and edges, surface scratches on the full-art foil, print lines, centering on the front and back, and dents or pressure marks that are easy to miss on dark or textured artwork. Full-art/illustration-style cards also show sleeve scuffing and foil scratching more clearly than standard prints.[12]
Storage. Use a perfect-fit sleeve immediately, then store the card in a rigid top loader or semi-rigid holder for high-value copies. Keep it away from sunlight, humidity, and temperature swings, and avoid repeated handling because full-art surfaces show wear quickly.
Authenticity. Verify correct set numbering, text alignment, font weight, and the expected holo/texture pattern for the rarity. Counterfeit checks should include the back-light test, rosette-dot pattern under magnification, and comparison against known authentic scans; because this is a high-value chase card, professional grading is recommended for expensive raw copies.[12]
